Available online: explore how the choice of thermal trait influences species distribution model predictions under climate change. In this study, we examine three fitness-related traits in the brown seaweed Dictyota dichotoma — spore germination rate, maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (Fv/Fm), and growth rate — and use them to build hybrid species distribution models alongside a traditional correlative SDM. Despite considerable differences in the thermal performance curves of each trait, predictions across the hybrid models were largely congruent under both current and future conditions, and closely matched those of the correlative SDM. Importantly, all models predicted range contractions at the warm-edge limit in the Mediterranean Sea under future climate scenarios, suggesting that these populations may be particularly vulnerable — although cooler local microhabitats could buffer some of these effects.
link: https://doi.org/10.1002/ecog.08355
